MPEG-4, HD will keep telcos competitive
Dec 12, 2006 8:00 AM
IPTVU: Could you describe the impact MPEG-4 AVC will have on the IPTV market specifically with the ability to use its available bandwidth more efficiently over its DSL network?
WD: That’s one of the key areas enabling IPTV services for telcos. Verizon, AT&T and some of the larger RBOCs claim they can afford to go out and rehab their networks for these types of video services. But, there are many telcos with an installed-base of copper that just can't afford to do large-scale rehab. They have to leverage their existing copper infrastructure, and that inevitably means a smaller pipe into the home than a fiber or VDSL solution. So, the only way they could really provide a quality video service is with advanced video coding like MPEG-4.
IPTVU: From your discussions with these smaller telcos seeking to deliver IPTV service, are they interested in implementing interactive services and have they planned to do so?
WD: Yes. In fact, the ones that we’re talking to and the ones that are trialing IP PRIME are very anxious to get the interactive services up and running. Features like caller ID on the screen sound simple, and individually these features may not be the ultimate solution. But as you implement a portfolio of these types of interactive services, the customers become stickier. You work with a high school or elementary school to get the school lunch menu online. It's more or less the equivalent of an interactive PEG (public access, educational, government) channel in the cable world. The potential is there for local video on demand, such as the local high school football game, spelling bee, etc. Once a telco installs the IPTV network, it's just adding a video stream on the IPTV network.
IPTVU: What other trends do you see emerging?
WD: Another key thing emerging is the new MPEG-4 chipsets in the set-top box. If you look at the business case from the telcos’ perspective, obviously the set-top box is key because you have to put one next to every TV set. Now, there are some set-tops that are multistream, but still you have to install the box in the customer’s home. It's CAPEX on a per customer basis; so clearly for IPTV to be viable, set-top prices have to be affordable and continue to be priced low. At the same time, the functionality has to be there, and until recently we really didn't see chipset vendors with products that would allow for a very robust hardware implementation of set-top boxes. Those products are emerging now. In fact, we’re working with a couple of vendors, Scientific-Atlanta and Amino, on their chipset set-top boxes that actually support MPEG-4 HD and SD in the same box. Once we start to see serious volumes, then prices will get even better for the telcos.
IPTVU: We’re at the beginning of MPEG-4. Considering the advances MPEG-2 has made in efficiency throughout the past 10 years, can you look into your crystal ball and predict where we might be in terms of efficiency with MPEG-4 in a decade? And, will it allow telcos to offer multiple HD channels, SD channels and other services over their copper networks?
WD: Clearly, that's the trend. I wouldn't be able to speculate accurately. I challenge anyone to predict how long MPEG-4 will be around before we come up with even better encoding algorithms, but I know MPEG-4 was designed with a number of “hooks” for improvement overtime. So, I think there's a lot of room left for MPEG-4 enhancements at this point in time. On the SD side, in the past year, we’ve seen encoding rates drop from around 3Mb/s to the low two’s with really good quality, actually staggering quality. The real advancements we’re going to see in the next 12 to 18 months are on the HD side. The HD encoders are just becoming available commercially. But we’re seeing encoding rates today for sports-based HD around 10Mb/s and for traditional broadcast, talking-heads HD around 8Mb/s, and the pressure is to bring those rates down lower and lower. So, I think we’ll see more movement on the MPEG-4 side in HD than the SD, which is all good news.
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