HD-DVD to dominate home video market by 2015, says report

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VHS will be “virtually extinct” in the home video market by 2009 and high-definition optical disc sell-through revenue will exceed today’s total by nearly $1.5 billion by 2015, according to a new report from Kagan Research.

The report, “The State of Home Video (11th Edition),” forecasts that by 2015, “VHS will be history” and “high-definition DVD will be the major market shareholder with $18.3 billion in revenue.”

According to the report, home video revenue will drop in 2006 by .4 percent from last year’s level, reaching $24.1 billion. Rental revenue will decline 8.3 percent this year to $7.2 billion, and sell-through revenue will grow 3.4 percent because of the revenue from DVD sales that will hit $16.8 billion this year.

The report also finds:

• Rental revenue will continue to decline throughout the next decade as VOD technologies gain a larger following. Total rental revenue is estimated to be $4.2 billion in 2015, posting a negative 5.8 percent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for the decade.
• Online revenue has been steadily increasing its share of the market, grabbing 17.2 percent in 2005, or nearly $2.8 billion. Online revenue has posted a 182 percent CAGR since 1997, compared to a growth rate of 115 percent for stores revenue.

For more information, visit: www.kagan.com/SHV-11.