BIA/Kelsey’s U.S. Mobile Ad Revenue Forecast has predicted that mobile advertising revenues, including ads in mobile search, display and SMS, will grow from $491 million in 2009 to $2.9 billion in 2014, a compound annual growth rate of 43 percent. More specifically, mobile search ad revenues will grow at a 93 percent CAGR from $59 million to $1.6 billion; mobile display ad revenues will grow at a 31 CAGR from $206 million to $803 million; and mobile SMS will grow a 20 percent CAGR from $226 million to $562 million. (Read an excerpt from the report here.)
The findings support the belief that mobile search will predominate in the future with regard to advertising. Location-based advertising, which targets a user’s location, will also impact revenues in what BIA/Kelsey calls local mobile advertising: a 57 percent CAGR from $213 million in 2009 to $2.03 billion in 2014. The company identified marketers’ unease with mobile metrics as one of the major hurdles to mobile advertising.
ABI Research came out with its own statistics on mobile marketing and advertising revenue, which it breaks down into text messages, banner ads, mobile search, in-application advertising and in-video advertising. The company forecasts that that mobile display ad revenue will approach $1.5 billion in 2016. Overall mobile ad media is expected to near $1 billion by the end of 2010. The company estimates that 20 percent of all major companies have at least dipped a toe into mobile marketing.